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Published online 8 September 2005
Published in J Environ Qual 34:1801-1810 (2005)
DOI: 10.2134/jeq2005.0020
© 2005 American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America
677 S. Segoe Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA
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TECHNICAL REPORTS

Ecological Risk Assessment

Predicted Impact and Evaluation of North Carolina's Phosphorus Indexing Tool

Amy M. Johnsona,*, Deanna L. Osmonda and Steven C. Hodgesb

a Soil Science Department, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7619, Raleigh, NC 27695-7619
b Crop and Soil Environmental Science Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 330 Smyth Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061

* Corresponding author (amjohns2{at}unity.ncsu.edu)

Received for publication January 19, 2005.

    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
Increased concern about potential losses of phosphorus (P) from agricultural fields receiving animal waste has resulted in the implementation of new state and federal regulations related to nutrient management. In response to strengthened nutrient management standards that require consideration of P, North Carolina has developed a site-specific P indexing system called the Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) to predict relative amounts of potential P loss from agricultural fields. The purpose of this study was to apply the PLAT index on farms throughout North Carolina in an attempt to predict the percentage and types of farms that will be forced to change management practices due to implementation of new regulations. Sites from all 100 counties were sampled, with the number of samples taken from each county depending on the proportion of the state's agricultural land that occurs in that county. Results showed that approximately 8% of producers in the state will be required to apply animal waste or inorganic fertilizer on a P rather than nitrogen basis, with the percentage increasing for farmers who apply animal waste (approximately 27%). The PLAT index predicted the greatest amounts of P loss from sites in the Coastal Plain region of North Carolina and from sites receiving poultry waste. Loss of dissolved P through surface runoff tended to be greater than other loss pathways and presents an area of concern as no best management practices (BMPs) currently exist for the reduction of in-field dissolved P. The PLAT index predicted the areas in the state that are known to be disproportionately vulnerable to P loss due to histories of high P applications, high densities of animal units, or soil type and landscapes that are most susceptible to P loss.

Abbreviations: PLAT, Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool • STP, soil test phosphorus


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
NORTH CAROLINA is a major animal producing state, being the largest producer of turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) in the United States with 45.5 million annually ($429 million), the second largest producer of swine (Sus scrofa) with 9.7 million ($1.4 billion), and the fourth largest producer of broilers (Gallus domesticus) with 735 million ($1.4 billion) (North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, 2002). In many areas of the state, large amounts of animal wastes are generated, which has led to the accumulation of more livestock manure nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) than can be used by growing crops. Based on median soil test results for 2003, the majority of counties in North Carolina exceeded the optimum Mehlich-3 soil test phosphorus (STP) value for crop production, 53 mg kg–1 (Fig. 1) . Soil test P is related to the amount of dissolved and particulate P in surface runoff (Sharpley, 1995; Pote et al., 1996) and dissolved P in leachate (McDowell and Sharpley, 2001; Hansen et al., 2002). The buildup of soil P in agricultural soils suggests an increased risk of P loss off-field and has been cited as a major factor contributing to decreased water quality in the state (North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, 2004). For instance, it is estimated that nonpoint-source pollution from agriculture and livestock contributes 55% of the P in the Tar–Pamlico River Basin, one of the state's largest river basins (North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, 1999). This situation has severe economic and environmental ramifications as the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, into which most of the state's surface waters empty, make up the nation's second largest estuary (Association of National Estuaries Program, http://www.apnep.org/pages/regions.html; verified 17 June 2005).



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Fig. 1. Median North Carolina Mehlich-3 soil test P index values for all crops by county for the year 2003. Data are from soils submitted to the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Soil Testing Division. Data compiled by R. Austin and D. Osmond, North Carolina State University, Department of Soil Science. A soil test index value of >50 indicates a site on which crops are not expected to show a response to further P additions.

 
A number of state initiatives have been passed to regulate nutrient applications on agricultural fields. In 1993 changes were made to the state nondischarge rules, requiring facilities above certain animal threshold populations to write and use an animal waste management plan. Established animal population thresholds are greater than or equal to 100 cows (Bos taurus), 250 swine, or 30000 poultry (liquid poultry manure systems only). As the minimum criteria for developing waste plans, the state adopted USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) standards related to animal waste management, Standard 590 (USDA-NRCS, 2001).

The revision of NRCS Standard 590 requires that sites receiving organic by-products or fertilized fields that are located in sensitive watersheds be assessed for P loss potential. Regulations for poultry operations utilizing dry litter are not tied to state standards. Based on the revised standard, all livestock operations in North Carolina that apply liquid animal waste, receive federal or state cost-share monies, or meet federal Confined Animal Feeding Operation standards (USEPA, 2003) will be required to use a P index known as the North Carolina Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT).

Since this P index will affect thousands of producers in North Carolina, a quantitative and easy-to-use tool was developed to provide a more comprehensive risk assessment of potential P loss than STP alone. Thus, the specific objective of this study was to estimate the percentage and types of farms that will be required to use P-based nutrient management as a result of new regulations requiring the use of PLAT. We have no actual field data quantitatively measuring P loss with which to compare to PLAT's predictions and, therefore, cannot perform a validation of the index. However, those sites with high STP levels or that occur in high animal density areas can be compared to those sites which PLAT identifies as being high risk to determine if PLAT is correctly identifying suspected problem areas throughout the state.


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
Sampling
To predict the percentage of North Carolina farms that will be forced to implement P-based management as a consequence of new regulations requiring the use of PLAT, input parameters from randomly selected agricultural fields in all 100 counties of North Carolina were collected. The aim of the following sampling scheme was to predict the theoretical outcome of running PLAT on every farm in the state while maintaining the strictest possible statistical procedure for obtaining random samples. The number of fields sampled from an individual county was weighted to represent the agricultural acreage, of both row cropland and hay–pasture land, in that particular county.

A total of 1379 fields in the state were sampled. The maximum number of fields sampled from a given county was 36, the minimum number was 5, and the mean number sampled was 16. A list of farms in each county was obtained from county extension personnel or from the Farm Service Agency from which twice the number of farms needed to fulfill the sampling requirement in a given county were randomly selected. On a chosen farm, only one field was used unless the farm included both crop and pasture–hay fields; in the latter case, one field of each type was sampled. If the random selection of a farm produced a landowner who was not farming or who was unwilling to participate, the next farm on the list was used. Once a farm was chosen, the individual field closest to the geographic center of the county, according to digital orthoquads, was selected for sampling to ensure that soil samples were obtained without bias toward fields closest to the manure source.

Data collected from each field included: inputs used in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) (vegetative cover type, cover condition, slope variables, and soil mapping unit); information on the presence of drainage tiles or ditches, and the depth of and distance between tile lines or ditches; water control structures; farm ponds; and buffers including buffer width. Length of depositional area (receiving slope), tillage, types and amounts of P application, and timing and method of application were also recorded. In addition, a composite soil sample was collected at the 0- to 20-cm depth and analyzed for Mehlich-3 P at the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Soil Testing Lab. When analysis of a surface sample indicated the need for a subsurface sample (see description of PLAT below), a composite sample from the 70- to 80-cm soil depth was taken from the same site for measurement of Mehlich-3 P. Soil mapping units were used to obtain information on clay percentage, curve number, and transmissivity of the sampled soil and to determine classification into one of the four P threshold groups (organic, sand, loam, or clay). Data for each field were entered into a computerized version of PLAT and an estimation of potential P loss calculated.

Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool
The PLAT index identifies four P loss pathways: (i) loss via erosion (sediment P); (ii) loss via surface runoff (dissolved P); (iii) loss via subsurface drainage (dissolved P); and (iv) loss via applied P source (particulate and dissolved P from applied sources). Source and transport factors are evaluated within each loss pathway in a multiplicative manner and results of the four parts are summed to estimate a relative amount of total P being delivered off-field. Although the tool estimates P loss in kg P ha–1 yr–1, it is unlikely to be an accurate approximation of actual P flux leaving a field and is only a relative indication of potential P loss. This allows the user to make comparative estimates of risk between different management practices and field conditions. Estimated values of P loss are converted to index values in PLAT by multiplying kg P ha–1 by 22.3 (25.0 when using lb P acre–1). This value was chosen to scale index ratings (when on lb P acre–1 basis), similar to the state soil test indexing system. Index values obtained from PLAT are then used to rate the potential for edge-of-field P loss by classifying them into one of four risk categories (Table 1).


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Table 1. Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) risk categories and their generalized interpretation.

 
The following is a brief overview of the PLAT indexing system and the reader is referred to the following website for a more thorough explanation of the algorithms used in PLAT as well as a downloadable copy of the program (http://www.soil.ncsu.edu/nmp/ncnmwg; verified 17 June 2005).

The loss of sediment-bound P is a function of the amount of soil leaving the field through erosion, the total amount of P that is attached to those eroded soil particles, and any sediment redeposition that occurs within the field. As has been done in most states' P indices, PLAT determines erosion using RUSLE (Version 1.4) (Renard et al., 1991). The total P content of the eroded sediment is estimated by employing an exponential relationship between the clay content and STP of the soil (Cox, 1994). Multiplying the erosion rate by the total P factor yields an estimate of the particulate P that could potentially leave the field. Credits, or reductions in the amount of eroded material leaving the field, can be achieved through the presence of depositional areas, vegetative buffers, water control structures, sediment basins, or farm ponds.

Loss of P through surface runoff is predicted by considering the amount of STP that is likely to be dissolved in runoff water and the volume of runoff that occurs at a site. Determining runoff concentration is done by assigning a soil to one of four "P threshold groups" based on the assumption that soils have differing abilities to retain P. A "P threshold" is defined as the STP value at which 1 mg L–1 of dissolved P is expected to be lost to the soil solution (i.e., runoff). Four threshold soil groups are defined and, with their respective STP threshold value, are: clays, 500 mg kg–1; loams, 200 mg kg–1; sands, 100 mg kg–1; and organics, 50 mg kg–1. In general, assignment to one of the four threshold groups is based on soil texture, drainage, and depth to the Bt horizon, but for simplicity the groups are referred to by their generalized texture. Grouping all state soils into only four threshold groups is understood to be an oversimplification of the P retention characteristics of all soils, but it is thought to be a better approach than assuming all soils behave identically with regard to the relationship between STP and P solubility. A unique equation has been developed for each threshold group based on studies done on North Carolina soils and is used to estimate the amount of dissolved P for a given STP (Woodruff, 1963; Daughtrey, 1970; Novias, 1977; Cox, 1994; Cox and Hendricks, 2000; Kamprath, unpublished data).

Concentration of P in subsurface drainage is only considered in specific situations. Two conditions must be met in order for a subsoil sample to be required. First, STP of the surface (0–20 cm) soil must exceed the P threshold (50, 100, 200, or 500 mg kg–1) for that particular soil group (organic, sand, loam, or clay). If this does not occur, it is assumed that the surface soil is still able to retain a significant amount of P and very little dissolved P will reach the subsoil. Second, the soil must be designated as one prone to the loss of dissolved P through leaching. For certain types of soil with highly developed Bt horizons it is assumed that even if the surface is P saturated, a significant amount of dissolved P will not move downward due to the relatively high sorption capacity of the fine-textured Bt horizon. If, however, the soil surface is P-saturated, as indicated by the exceedance of the P threshold, and the soil type is not a well-drained soil with a stable Bt, than a subsoil sample is required and STP determined.

Estimates of surface runoff and subsurface drainage volumes are determined differently, depending on the drainage condition of a site. On well-drained soils that do not require improved drainage, surface runoff is determined using a modification of the SCS curve number method (USDA-SCS, 1985) and long-term rainfall data from each county. To estimate subsurface drainage volume on naturally drained soils a mass balance approach is used. In this case, average subsurface drainage is considered to be the volume of water after accounting for precipitation, runoff (as calculated for the surface runoff estimation), and evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration is estimated for either pasture or row crop, using simulations with the GLEAMS model (Leonard et al., 1987) and long-term weather data. For poorly drained soils that require artificial drainage for crop production, a modification of the hydrologic model DRAINMOD, a water-balance model that partitions rainfall into the various hydrologic components of shallow water-table soils, is employed to predict the amount of surface runoff and subsurface drainage (Skaggs et al., 2004).

Predictions of P loss due to applied P source are made using the P content, application rate, method and timing of P application of the applied P source, and an estimation of rainfall that is moving over the soil surface as runoff, the "runoff fraction". Additionally, the total P of a given animal waste type is partitioned into liquid and solid fractions, each with its own attenuation factor according to waste type. Three categories of waste type exist: fresh manure/litter/scraped, sludge/slurry, and liquid. A P source such as lagoon liquid will have a relatively small amount of applied source P loss predicted by PLAT due to its high solubility and tendency to infiltrate the soil rapidly, whereas poultry litter, with its greater nonsoluble P content, will be more likely to remain on the surface and provide a longer-term source of P. Inorganic P fertilizer is assumed to be 100% soluble.


    RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
Statewide Impact
Mean PLAT index ratings by county for the 1379 sample fields are shown in Fig. 2 . Although most counties in North Carolina fall into the PLAT index categories that do not require modifications in nutrient management plans ("low" and "medium"), a few problem areas with respect to P management are apparent in Fig. 2. These areas tend to correspond to those that have elevated soil test P levels (Fig. 1), and high concentrations of confined animal feeding operations (Fig. 3 and 4) .



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Fig. 2. Mean Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) risk rating for 1379 sample sites by county.

 


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Fig. 3. Confined animal feedlots registered with the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources as required by the North Carolina .0200 Rules for Waste Not Discharged to Surface Waters. Animal operations with fewer than threshold populations (<100 for cattle and <250 for swine) and poultry operations with dry litter waste systems (see Fig. 4) are not included. Data are for 1998, 1 yr after the moratorium on new swine facilities enacted by the state legislature, and were obtained from the North Carolina Center for Geographic Information and Analysis (http://cgia.cgia.state.nc.us/ncgdc/; verified 17 June 2005).

 


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Fig. 4. Poultry operations throughout the state of North Carolina. Data are for 2004 and are used with permission from the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Veterinary Division. Includes all poultry operations, regardless of waste type or management.

 
Statewide, the application of PLAT resulted in 81% of the 1379 sample fields being categorized as "low" with respect to potential P loss and 11% as "medium". Fields rating "high" and "very high", thereby requiring P-based nutrient management, comprised 6 and 2% of the fields, respectively. These results suggest that, potentially, 8% of farms in North Carolina will no longer be able to use N-based management plans.

Magnitude of PLAT Components
The mean amount of total P loss for our sample fields as estimated by PLAT was 0.72 kg P ha–1 which ranks as "low" when converted to an index value (Table 2). Predicted P losses for individual components of PLAT averaged 0.11 kg P ha–1 for erosion, 0.40 kg P ha–1 for surface runoff, 0.06 kg P ha–1 for subsurface drainage, and 0.18 kg P ha–1 for applied P source. It is important to be aware of the differences between mean and median values in Table 2. In the case of almost every parameter, the mean value is greater then the median indicating a nonsymmetrical distribution of sampled values. In general, a few sites with very high parameter values are skewing the means upward. However, both the mean and median PLAT rating for the 1379 samples are in the "low" risk category. Because the main goal of Tables 36 is to compare PLAT predictions on different soils, landscapes, and/or managements, only the means are reported in these tables.


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Table 2. Summary statistics for Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) index parameters from the 1379 sites sampled. Results for P loss via surface runoff and subsurface drainage have been further segregated into naturally and artificially drained sites.

 

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Table 3. Percentage of sites in each Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) rating category segregated by soil test phosphorus (STP) level, P source, physiographic region, and P threshold group.

 

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Table 6. Mean values for Phosphorus Loss Assessment Tool (PLAT) index parameters for each P threshold soil group.{dagger}

 

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Table 4. Mean calculated P loss values calculated for sites receiving each P amendment.

 

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Table 5. Mean calculated P loss values for sites from each of North Carolina's three physiographic regions.

 
Predicted P loss from surface runoff was the largest contributor, on average, to total P loss, more than twice the amount of any other loss pathway (Table 2). This result is in contrast to a similar evaluation of Delaware's P site index in which the transport potential from soil erosion was more than four times that of surface runoff according to P loss rating values (Leytem et al., 2003). In our study, potential loss from surface runoff was greater than three times that of potential erosion loss. This result occurred despite a relatively low mean runoff volume (70 mm), suggesting that runoff concentration, which is a function of STP and soil type, is an important factor in PLAT's predictions of P loss.

Both the mean and median STP for the 1379 fields (114 mg kg–1) exceeded the 53 mg kg–1 considered as optimum for crop production by the state soil-testing lab. In the range of STP values for which additions of fertilizer or manure P applications would be recommended (0–53 mg kg–1), the majority of sites received a PLAT rating of "low", with less than 1% of the sites rating "high" or "very high" (Table 3). When STP increased to levels above which a crop response would not be expected, the percentage of fields that fell into risk categories requiring P-based management increased; 31% of the fields having STP levels of 200 mg kg–1 or greater exhibited a "high" or "very high" potential to contribute P to surface waters. When STP was 200 mg kg–1 or greater, 40% of sites were still predicted to have a "low" potential for P loss, indicating the importance of transport factors in PLAT. Despite a large contribution of P from either soil or manure, if the mechanisms to transport it as either dissolved or particulate P do not exist, it theoretically cannot present a threat to water quality.

The mean runoff P concentration as estimated by PLAT was approximately 0.5 mg L–1, a concentration at which eutrophication has been shown to occur (Sims et al., 1998). No best management practices (BMPs) exist for the control of surface runoff other than reducing STP or reducing the amount of runoff by improving soil cover conditions, thereby maximizing infiltration. Reducing STP by discontinuing P applications and optimizing crop removal of residual soil P has been shown to require many years (Kamprath, 1999). Kamprath found that, with no P fertilization, it took 26 yr for the STP of a sandy Coastal Plain soil with an initial Mehlich-3 STP value of 154 mg kg–1 to decrease to the critical agronomic STP of 53 mg kg–1.

Differences in P loss via surface runoff and subsurface drainage for different drainage situations are illustrated in Table 2. Greater volumes of both surface runoff and subsurface drainage are predicted under artificial drainage compared to natural drainage. This result is somewhat counterintuitive as surface runoff generally decreases and subsurface drainage increases when artificial drainage is implemented (Skaggs et al., 1980). The different methods used by PLAT to estimate volumes of water moving over and through the soil are apparently biasing prediction results. Whether the DRAINMOD method is overpredicting runoff volume on artificially drained sites or the Curve Number method is underpredicting runoff for naturally drained conditions is unknown at this time. It is interesting to note, however, that water quality studies done on the Albermarle–Pamlico Drainage Basin examining various watersheds grouped according to land use, drainage characteristics, and surficial geology have shown that the highest surface water P concentrations were observed in agricultural Coastal Plain basins with medium to poor drainage (Harned et al., 1995; McMahon and Harned, 1998). It is not known whether these increased concentrations of P in surface waters stem from P in drainage waters or surface runoff on these sites.

Artificially drained fields had a greater predicted P loss via surface runoff than naturally drained fields (0.59 vs. 0.35 kg P ha–1 for artificial and natural drainage, respectively), but a lower P loss due to subsurface drainage (0.02 vs. 0.07 kg P ha–1) despite the greater estimated volume of drainage. The reason for this finding is the inclusion of a transmissivity factor (T30/Tp) in PLAT's calculation of P loss through subsurface drainage. This factor acts to modify the amount of dissolved P moving through the soil profile. It was introduced because it is assumed that once dissolved P moves to a soil depth of 80 cm, it will be lost through subsurface drains rather than continue downward through the soil profile. No such factor exists for the computation of P loss via subsurface drainage on naturally drained sites. Thus, this factor acts to reduce the predicted P loss via subsurface drainage on artificially drained sites when compared to naturally drained sites, despite a greater drainage volume and equal drainage P concentrations. We recognize that the transmissivity factor, as well as the greater estimated volume of runoff from fields with artificial drainage, represent a potential problem and research attempting to validate the DRAINMOD model portion of PLAT is currently being performed.

Comparison by Phosphorus Source
When sample fields were segregated by applied P source, PLAT predicted that a substantially higher percentage of producers using animal waste would need to change to P-based management compared to fields receiving inorganic fertilizer. Between 20 and 25% of the fields receiving animal waste rated in the "high" or "very high" PLAT categories, whereas only 4% of fields receiving inorganic fertilizer as a P source resulted in either of these ratings (Table 3).

Mean total P loss predicted by PLAT was 1.58 kg P ha–1 for fields using animal waste versus 0.62 kg P ha–1 for fields on which inorganic fertilizer was applied (Table 4). Thus, the typical field on which inorganic fertilizer is applied represents a "low" potential for P loss while fields receiving animal waste were, on average, in the "medium" risk category. At this level, waste can be applied on an N basis, but the implementation of practices to reduce P loss should be considered.

Comparing P loss from only the applied source loss pathway shows that, among fields receiving swine waste, the predicted loss of P due to applied source was half that calculated from sites receiving other animal waste types (0.32 vs. 0.65 kg P ha–1 for dairy and 0.69 kg P ha–1 for poultry). Swine waste is typically applied as lagoon effluent, which has a greater proportion of dissolved P that can infiltrate the soil rapidly, leaving less P on the soil surface, available to runoff.

Differences in other loss pathways from fields receiving various animal waste types occurred, but these results are due to a variety of factors. Farms applying dairy waste had a relatively high loss of P through erosion, because these fields experienced a greater mean rate of soil loss, as predicted by the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) (7.4 Mg ha–1 vs. 2.3, 1.8, and 3.6 Mg ha–1 for poultry, swine, and inorganic fertilizer sites, respectively). All of the dairy sites occurred on erosion-prone upland soils. Presumably, a greater clay content is the reason why loss of P through surface runoff on dairy sites is relatively low, as PLAT assumes that soils with greater amounts of clay can sorb greater quantities of P before releasing dissolved P into the soil solution.

Most of the predicted P loss from sites receiving swine waste was through surface runoff and subsurface drainage pathways. Fields that had received swine waste had a greater subsurface STP, perhaps related to the proclivity of this type of waste to move downward through the soil profile. Additionally, 95% of sample fields receiving swine waste occurred in the Coastal Plain, a region which has a greater amount of artificially drained sites (49 vs. 3% in both the Mountains and Piedmont combined), from which PLAT tended to predict greater subsurface drainage volumes, although not necessarily greater P loss via drainage as described earlier. However, the combination of increased drainage volume and elevated subsurface STP levels caused a greater predicted P loss via subsurface drainage.

Fields receiving poultry waste tended to lose P predominantly through surface runoff and from the applied P source. Mean STP was highest on surface soils of these sites at 247 mg kg–1 as compared to 177 and 117 mg kg–1 for swine and dairy, respectively. Fields that did not receive animal waste had a mean STP of 94 mg kg–1.

Comparison by Physiographic Region
When samples were segregated by physiographic region, the proportion of sample fields in the "high" and "very high" risk categories decreased as elevation increased (Coastal Plain > Piedmont > Mountain). Approximately 11% of sites in the Coastal Plain would be required to switch to P-based management while 7% of sites in the Piedmont and only 1% of sites in the Mountains would be affected (Table 3). This same pattern of increasing P loss risk from west to east across the state occurred for predicted loss of P through surface runoff, subsurface drainage, and total P loss (Table 5). Mean soil test P also followed this trend: 134, 114, and 77 mg kg–1 for the Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Mountain, respectively. The concentration of livestock in North Carolina is greatest in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont with the Mountain region having very little animal agriculture, with the exception of one county. Additionally, 99% of the clay sample sites occurred in the Mountains and Piedmont, while the majority of sites with sands were in the Coastal Plain. This is important because more P is required to raise STP by the same amount on a finer-textured soil versus a coarser-textured soil.

In general, the Coastal Plain region has more coarse-textured soils, higher water tables, and more poorly drained soils. These characteristics of the region, as well as being the site of the nation's second largest swine industry and its close proximity to sensitive estuaries, increases the threat to the environment. The PLAT index appeared to identify these potentially harmful conditions. As an example, sample fields in Duplin County, a Coastal Plain county which has the highest density of hogs in the state, had an average of 177 mg kg–1 STP and PLAT predicted over half of the fields to be in the "high" or "very high" risk category.

Fields located in the Piedmont region had, on average, greater estimated losses of P through erosion than sample fields in other regions. Fields in the Mountain region, which are expected to have relatively higher erosion rates, had low predicted loss via erosion and little P loss overall. This finding most likely results from the prevalent cropping system: 94% of fields sampled in the Mountain region were in pasture.

Comparison by Threshold Group
Because loss of P through surface runoff was the dominant loss pathway and is controlled partly by which threshold group a soil belongs to, we wanted to assess differences in PLAT results among threshold groups. The results show that the lower the P threshold of the soil on which a sample field occurs, the greater percentage of fields that fall in the "high" or "very high" risk category, with the exception of organic sites (Table 3). Fields with clay soil types, receiving both animal waste and inorganic fertilizer, and fields with loam soil types receiving inorganic fertilizer received an index rating placing them in the "low" category (Table 6). Fields with organic soils and receiving animal waste had a "very high" risk of P loss but this category included only one sample field so generalizations are not appropriate. All other soil type and P source type combinations fell in the "medium" risk category. Fields receiving animal waste and having loam or sandy soils were very close to index values which would place them into the "high" risk category at which P-based management is required. Where animal waste was applied, the index value was always greater than fields on which inorganic fertilizer was applied, regardless of soil type. This is due to the greater applied P source loss on these fields, but also to the buildup of soil P on sites receiving animal wastes as evidenced by the higher STP (Table 6).

Erosion P loss was greatest in clay soils where inorganic fertilizer was used. The reason for this is not clear as most clay sites were in the Mountain and Piedmont regions where pasture cropping systems dominated. Less erosion was predicted from clay and loam sites receiving animal waste versus those receiving inorganic fertilizer. This result may be due to the fact that more sites receiving animal waste in the Mountains and Piedmont were in pasture. Approximately 65% of loam fields receiving animal waste were under pasture while the same can be said of 93% of clay fields, versus 23 and 78% of sites receiving inorganic fertilizer for loams and clays, respectively. Loam and sand groups had a greater predicted risk of dissolved P loss through surface runoff when compared to soils in the clay threshold group. Clay soils are assigned a greater P threshold value than other soil groups in PLAT and are assumed to be capable of accumulating greater levels of STP before releasing dissolved P into solution.

Soil test P was greater in each soil group where animal waste was applied compared to inorganic fertilizer applications. With the exception of clays, all soil groups receiving animal waste exceeded the threshold P value for that soil group. The threshold value affects estimations of runoff P concentration in that even though clay soils receiving animal waste had similar STP values as other soil groups, they had relatively low surface runoff P loss. This is because the method used in PLAT for determining runoff concentration is based not only on a soil's STP but also to which threshold group it belongs to. For example, a clay site with a STP of 226 mg kg–1 was predicted to produce a much lower P concentration in surface runoff than a sandy field with a STP of 225 mg kg–1 (0.45 vs. 2.25 mg L–1). The organic soils had the greatest predicted loss of dissolved P through surface runoff due to the fact that these soils are treated very conservatively in PLAT, having a threshold P value of only 50 mg kg–1. Therefore, PLAT predicts high P concentrations in runoff from these soils at relatively low STP levels. This level of STP was set as a threshold in these unique soils because they have been shown to release large amounts of dissolved P (Daughtrey et al., 1972). More recent studies, however, suggest that shallow organic soils of the North Carolina Coastal Plain are able to retain more P than previously thought (Johnson, 2004). Currently, a number of studies are underway to help us better understand the dynamics of P movement in the state's organic soils.

Fields occurring on sands had a higher estimated subsurface drainage P loss component than did other soil types, which may have been confounded by the effect of location (Coastal Plain; Table 5) and animal waste type (swine lagoon effluent; Table 4).


    CONCLUSIONS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
The PLAT index made it possible to assign relative ratings of different fields' potential to contribute P to the environment. The results for 1379 fields showed that the tool predicted the areas in the state that are known to be disproportionately vulnerable to P loss due to histories of high P applications, high densities of animal units, or soil type and landscapes that are most susceptible to P loss. The tool also differentiated between the specific loss components that were prevalent in different soil types and under different field conditions, thus helping to target remediation strategies and future areas of research.

Overall, only a small percentage of producers in North Carolina can expect to be affected by new standards requiring the use of PLAT. Based on PLAT estimations, fields in the Coastal Plain represent a markedly higher risk of P loss from soil to water, and animal producers are more likely to be forced to adjust their management practices to comply with federal and state regulations. Therefore, more attention and resources should be focused on these sites as they are more likely to contribute to degraded water quality. Loss of P from fields receiving poultry waste was dominated by loss of P through surface runoff and loss of applied P source due to the high P content of the waste. Dairy waste had an equally high total P content and loss through applied source as well as a higher loss of P through erosion but a much smaller runoff loss. Sites receiving swine waste tended to lose P as dissolved P, to both surface runoff and subsurface drainage, because most of the P in this waste is already in a dissolved form. It is clear that where animal waste is being applied all soil types are experiencing a buildup of STP to levels which are considered excessive.

Loss of P through surface runoff, and the parameters that are used to estimate it, represents an area of PLAT that should be targeted for future research efforts, as this pathway accounted for a higher proportion of total P loss, especially from fields in the Coastal Plain. In soil types with lower P threshold values, losses of dissolved P through runoff were more significant, as it is assumed that these soils have lower P sorption capacities. Additionally, sandy fields were more susceptible to subsurface drainage P losses. Organic soils clearly represent an area in which our knowledge of P movement is lacking and which deserves further study. On average, PLAT appeared to identify problem sites as well as the vulnerable P loss pathways of an individual site.


    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of county personnel from the Cooperative Extension Service, Soil and Water Conservation District, and USDA-Natural Resource Conservation Service for their participation in the collection of field data and soil samples. Thanks are also due to the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Soil Testing Section for the timely analysis of soil samples and Agricultural Statistics Division for help in entering data. Additional thanks are given to Dr. Cavell Brownie in the Statistics Department at North Carolina State University for devising a statistically random sampling scheme for the entire state. Funding for this project was provided by the North Carolina Clean Water Management Trust Fund, a USDA National Needs Fellowship, the Pew Charitable Trust Foundation, USEPA, and North Carolina-NRCS.


    REFERENCES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 




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