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Uncertainty Assessment of the Model RICEWQ in Northern Italy

Istituto di Chimica Agraria ed Ambientale, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 29100 Piacenza, Italy

View larger version (64K): [in a new window]   Fig. 1. Location of Mantova province (Lombardia region, northern Italy) with the main irrigation–drainage canals (lines) and sampling sites (A and B) of the study area.

View larger version (36K): [in a new window]   Fig. 2. The residual scatter plot of log(Y + 1) transformation of the three Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) dependent variables against the fitted values (3600 runs): (a) tricyclazole concentration (µg L–1) in first paddy water runoff event (1REAT), (b) cumulative tricyclazole concentration (µg L–1) in paddy runoff over a 21-day treatment period (CUM), and (c) time-weighted concentration (µg L–1) in water runoff over a 21-day treatment period (TW21).

View larger version (25K): [in a new window]   Fig. 3. The probability distribution of daily runoff concentration (µg L–1) predicted at field level (558 runs): (a) DAT 0, (b) DAT 2, (c) DAT 7, and (d) DAT 28, where DAT is days after treatment.

View larger version (17K): [in a new window]   Fig. 4. The probability distribution of the 9-yr runoff concentrations (µg L–1) predicted with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) virtual parameters (3600 runs). 1REAT, chemical concentration in first paddy water runoff; CUM, cumulative chemical concentration in paddy runoff over a 21-day treatment period; TW21, time-weighted chemical concentration in water runoff over a 21-day treatment period.

View larger version (29K): [in a new window]   Fig. 5. The contribution of process input parameters (%) to the prediction uncertainty of each modeling output variables (3600 runs): (a) chemical concentration in first paddy water runoff (IREAT), (b) cumulative chemical concentration in paddy runoff over a 21-day treatment period, and (c) time-weighted chemical concentration in water runoff over a 21-day treatment period (TW21). See Table 2 for input variable definitions.