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Programmed Impacts of Environmental Restraints Applied to U.S. Agriculture¹

ABSTRACT

A national and interregional programming model is developed to evaluate the impact of potential restraints for soil loss and nitrogen on land use, crop production patterns, interregional competition, and economic variables. The model includes 105 producing regions with 5 land classes in each, 51 water supply regions, and 28 market regions. Crop and soil loss activities are defined for each land class in each producing region. The soil loss restraints would reduce gross soil loss through use of more contouring, strip cropping, terracing, and minimum tillage. Interregional reorganizations of agriculture are predicted to occur. Regions with greater rainfall and hilly land, particularly the southeastern U.S., would sacrifice in cropping share and farm income. Regions of level lands and less rainfall, particularly the Great Plains and part of the Corn Belt, would gain in cropping intensity and income. Under nitrogen restrictions more hectares of crops would be grown and pesticide expenditures would increase. Under all environmental alternatives analyzed, U.S. agriculture could meet U.S. food needs with small increases in the supply prices of food.

Key Words: environment • soil loss • nitrogen • production patterns • economic impacts

¹ Journal Paper number J-9032 of the Iowa Agric. and Home Econ. Exp. Stn., Ames, Iowa 50011. Proj. no. 2104.

² Earl O. Heady is director of the Center for Agric. and Rural Dev. and C. F. Curtiss Distinguished Professor at Iowa State Univ., Ames, Iowa. Gary F. Vocke is assistant professor at North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, N.C.

Received for publication December 27, 1977.