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Evaluating Time-Dependent Tree Ring and Climate Relationships

USDA-FS, Inst. for Quantitative Studies, Southern Forest Exp. Stn., 701 Loyola Ave., New Orleans, LA 70113.

^* Corresponding author.

ABSTRACT

Techniques for estimating dynamic tree ring and climate relationships with the Kalman filter have been recently introduced to the field of dendroecology. These methods have been used to evaluate effects of long-term climate change or pollution impacts on tree growth, thereby enhancing the value of tree rings as a historical data source. The verification of time-varying trends, however, should be based on replication of results, historical knowledge of the forest, and statistical testing to the extent possible. This article introduces several useful statistical tests for model verification and parameter time-dependency based on prediction errors and maximum likelihood information criteria.

Supported by funds from the National Vegetation Survey, which is part of the joint Forest Service/USEPA Forest Response Program.

Received for publication September 11, 1989.